The 1-1 draw between Cavalry and Forge on Saturday night may not have shifted much in the standings, but the Cavs will feel like the big winners. Owen Antoniuk cancelled out Noah Jensen's opener in the dying minutes, rescuing a point and denying Forge all three.
With both sides now having six games remaining in the regular season, here's how things stand.
The numbers
Cavalry reached 50 points with the late draw, four clear of second-placed Forge. Having now played all four of their regular-season meetings, the second tiebreaker of head-to-head is level between the two sides. If they finish equal on points, the third tiebreaker would decide the title: goal difference. That heavily favours Cavalry, who sit at +29 compared to Forge's +18. The Hammers will hope they don't go through that and instead make up five points, a tough task given how Cavalry have performed in the second half of the season.
What's left
As for Cavalry's remaining fixtures, they have three home games and three away. They host FC Supra, Pacific, and Vancouver FC at home, sides they have already beaten in Calgary this season, and travel to face Atlético Ottawa, Inter Toronto, and Halifax. They demolished Inter Toronto 5-1 in Ontario earlier in the season, recently beat Halifax 3-1 in Nova Scotia, and have beaten Atlético Ottawa in all three league encounters this year.
Forge, meanwhile, travel to Langley to face Vancouver FC before a three-game homestand against Halifax, Pacific, and Inter Toronto. Like Cavalry, their toughest remaining fixture is the trip to the nation's capital to face Atlético Ottawa, followed by the final regular-season match away to last-placed Pacific. Interestingly, Forge travel to Quebec to face CF Montréal in the Canadian Championship final just days before closing out their regular-season campaign in British Columbia.
When could a team clinch the title?
Assuming both sides win out, Cavalry would secure the CPL Shield on matchday 27, when they host Pacific FC. As for the Hammers, their chances of a third Shield in a row are slim, and if they do it, it's likely to come on the final matchday when they travel to Langford for a clash with Pacific.
The CPL Shield winner will secure qualification to next year's Concacaf Champions Cup, as well as home advantage in the CPL final should they reach it.
